Polling guru Nate Silver has raised Democrats’ likelihood of sweeping in the upcoming midterm elections.
The FiveThirtyEight founder has upgraded the party’s chances of winning the Senate to 75 percent.
Republicans currently hold a majority, but Democrats could take control if they win key battleground races in November.
A Reuters analysis identifies Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Kansas as the most important races in determining control.
Silver’s FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast promoted Democrats’ chances of retaking the chamber from “Lean D” to “Likely D”.
The data guru, who once forecast Barack Obama’s election win with startling precision, uses a model that combines polling data with election fundamentals, such as fundraising and incumbency, and ratings from election analysts.
Silver did not immediately respond to the Daily Beast’s request for comment.
The new forecast comes as Republicans panic with the midterms just weeks away, and frantically try to distance themselves from the unpopular MAGA base.
Reuters found that roughly two-thirds of Republican candidates running in tight House and Senate races are downplaying ties to President Donald Trump to improve their prospects.
Trump refuses to believe he’s hurting his own party’s chances, instead telling voters to “pretend he’s on the ballot,” to GOP candidates’ dismay.
The president, who ran on fixing Americans’ affordability crisis, has done the opposite since taking office.
Mortgage and auto loan rates are surging, gas prices are at record highs, Big Tech data centers are driving up energy bills, and job growth has slowed since Trump took office.
Even Trump’s most loyal supporters have turned on him, with a Pew Research Center study revealing that 31 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters now disapprove of his job performance.
Trump, 80, has done little to assuage concerns, instead gaslighting voters that the affordability crisis is a “fake” issue created by Democrats.
The president has also lashed out at his own party for complaining about high prices.
“You have a little higher. It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” Trump said during a rally in North Carolina. “Remember that. It’s a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more.”
