Polling guru Nate Silver says Democrats have a nearly 8-in-10 chance of capturing the Senate in Tuesday’s midterms.
Updating his model on YouTube show The Argument, the Silver Bulletin founder addressed how a three-way contest in Montana—where Independent Seth Bodnar faces Democrat Alani Bankhead and Republican Kurt Alme—had artificially skewed calculations.
His algorithm previously classified Bodnar as a standalone third-party entrant, failing to factor in how Bodnar and Bankhead draw from an overlapping electorate or that a Bodnar victory would effectively count as a Democratic vote in the Senate.
In short, this spelled good news for the Dems—and potential disaster for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
“It’s 79 in the Senate,” Silver noted, updating the percentage chance of the Democrats gaining control of the Senate, although he said changes to the Alaska race featuring Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan could bring that down.
“We’re gonna revise Alaska later tonight, and that might bring me down to like 78 or 77. But like, yeah, we’re in the mid to high 70s, right?”
“And that’s a little bit higher in prediction markets, but like I, I feel, I feel decent about that actually,” he added, noting that the refined figures remain grounded despite standing above general market odds.
Silver predicted Barack Obama’s 2012 election victory with startling precision, correctly calling all 50 states, plus Washington, D.C. This built on his breakout performance in the 2008 presidential election, where his model correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states, missing only Indiana.
The revised modeling comes as Trump struggles to counter economic anxiety on the campaign trail, repeatedly insisting that surging inflation concerns are merely a “fake” narrative pushed by political opponents.
While delivering remarks to supporters in North Carolina, the 80-year-old president shrugged off rising costs while chastising Republicans who voice public alarm over elevated prices.
“You have a little higher. It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” Trump told the crowd. “Remember that. It’s a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more.”
With final pre-election campaigning drawing to a close, Trump abruptly scrapped scheduled in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa, opting instead for a series of tele-rallies.
The decision sparked immediate speculation, culminating in a fierce outburst when a Reuters reporter pressed him on whether fatigue or health concerns played a role in canceling the Midwestern stops.
“You are disgusting,” Trump snapped at the journalist, dismissing the inquiry. “Put yourself in shape. You look like hell.”
