The papal conclave was moving toward crowning someone else Pope—until a turn of support vaulted Leo XIV to the top, a dramatic behind-the-scenes report has revealed.
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, claimed over 40 votes from the 133 cardinals in the first round of voting after the conclave began on Wednesday, according to an exposé on the process in The Wall Street Journal. His support was bolstered by Italian cardinals, who made up the largest voting bloc of any country, with 17 electors.
Many Italian cardinals reportedly felt that it was once again time for a Pope from Italy. Italian popes held the papacy for 455 consecutive years until the election of Polish Pope John Paul II started a trend of three consecutive foreign pontiffs.
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On the first day of the conclave, betting markets around the world listed Parolin as the favorite, with Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, a Filipino cardinal known as the “Asian Francis” because of his similar commitments to social justice, coming in second.
But by Thursday morning, Robert Prevost, a Chicago-born cardinal, began to gain momentum, while Parolin’s vote count stagnated in the high 40s. To secure the papacy, a candidate would need to win a two-thirds majority—at least 89 of the 133 votes cast by the cardinal electors.
Parolin, who spent nearly his entire career in the Vatican’s diplomatic service before becoming Pope Francis’ second-in-command, lacked the hands-on pastoral experience that many cardinals sought, according to the Journal’s report. Some of Parolin’s detractors reportedly worked to undermine his candidacy by scattering their votes among multiple contenders.
By the time the cardinals took a break from deliberating in the Sistine Chapel, it was clear that Prevost—who’d spent two decades as a missionary in Peru—was the new favorite. “At lunch, things were getting clarified,” American Cardinal Blase Cupich told the Journal.
In Thursday afternoon’s vote, Prevost garnered over 100 votes—more than enough to become Pope.
Ironically, it fell upon Parolin, the highest-ranking cardinal in the room, to ask Prevost: “Do you accept your canonical election as the supreme pontiff?”
“I accept,” Prevost said. He took the name Leo XIV.
Prevost had odds of less than 1 percent on the online betting site Kalshi, so some of those who placed longshot bets on Prevost becoming pope saw massive payouts. One bettor who took the gamble turned a $526 wager into $52,641.
Yet, as surprising as Prevost’s rise may have seemed to outsiders, a sizable faction of cardinals reportedly saw him from the outset as the ideal choice to uphold Francis’ vision of an inclusive church while shifting focus back to traditional doctrine. He was also seen as capable of tackling the Vatican’s financial challenges.
Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, told the Journal that a cardinal asked him, “Do you know this ‘Roberto?’” as Prevost’s name began circulating in pre-conclave conversations.
