Traders placed nearly half a billion dollars in bets on falling oil prices just 15 minutes before President Trump’s announcement of “productive” talks with Iran sent prices tumbling.
“It’s hard to prove causality . . . but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” one market strategist told the Financial Times of the transactions.
Roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate contracts traded between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. on Monday, with unusually large bets in the oil futures market, worth roughly $580 million.
The trades seemed reminiscent of an anonymous bet on Polymarket in January that saw one lucky user win $436,000 by betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s ouster just hours before he was captured by U.S. forces.
On Monday, the trades came just minutes before Trump took to Truth Social to declare that he was postponing his threatened strikes on Iran, an announcement that caused oil prices to fall and stock futures to jump.
“My gut from watching markets for the last 25 years is this is really abnormal,” one unnamed portfolio manager told the FT. “It’s Monday morning, there’s no important data today, there aren’t any Fed speakers you’d want to front run. It’s an unusually large trade for a day with no event risk . . . Somebody just got a lot richer.”
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
In a statement to the FT, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Iran’s foreign ministry dismissed any claims of negotiations with the U.S., telling state media that comments from “the U.S. president are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans,” according to the Associated Press.
Trump’s announcement marked a sharp reversal from his previous threats, when he warned he would “obliterate” Iran if it didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
That threat sparked panic over the weekend, with analysts warning of a looming energy crisis. The International Energy Agency called it a “major, major threat” to the global economy.
The administration’s confrontational stance sent oil above $115 a barrel last week, while European natural gas surged more than 15 percent, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Officials have sought to downplay the impact. Vice President JD Vance said in Auburn Hills, Michigan, on Wednesday: “Look, gas prices are up. We know they’re up and we know people are hurting because of it. We’re doing everything we can to ensure that they stay lower.” He added the spike was “a temporary blip” and insisted, “Frankly, they’re not even as high as they were in certain parts of the Biden administration.”
On CNBC, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett admitted the administration had prioritized other matters over the consumer “hurt” caused by soaring prices.
