One of Donald Trump’s biggest political targets has had a significant boost in his re-election prospects, in the latest sign of the treacherous battle Republicans face at this year’s midterms.
Democrat rising star Jon Ossoff—the most vulnerable Democratic Senator up for re-election this year—was bolstered on Thursday when a key forecaster shifted his race for Georgia from “leans Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”
The latest rating from the political publication Sabato’s Crystal Ball is an ominous sign for Republicans in a traditionally conservative state, and a blow for Trump, who has set his sights on Ossoff ever since he helped Joe Biden flip Georgia in 2020.
“He reminds me of Pinky Herman. Did you ever see ‘Pinky Herman?” Trump asked supporters at a rally near Atlanta last week, in an apparent mistaken reference to the film character Pee-wee Herman.
But Georgia, where Trump has backed self-described “MAGA warrior” Mike Collins, is far from the only problem.
The latest Sabato Crystal Ball, the weekly newsletter founded by veteran political analyst Larry Sabato, also pushed five Republican-held House seats towards Democrats, including the New York district of Trump ally Mike Lawler.
This brings the number of “toss-up” districts to 20 and underscores headwinds for a White House grappling with voter anger over everything from affordability, the war in Iran, and Trump’s own plummeting approval ratings.
“The Democratic lead is certainly more robust now than it would have been for Republicans in 2022,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik told the Daily Beast, a reference to the last midterm elections when many at the time expected a Republican “red wave”.
He added that Ossoff had also run a strong campaign against Collins, who has faced heavy scrutiny over alleged ties to neo-Nazi propaganda, including his son-in-law’s online white nationalist activity.
“I think if we got to November and John Ossoff lost, it would be a huge surprise,” Kondik said.
A CNN poll recently placed Ossoff as the new frontrunner for the 2028 presidential nomination, surging ahead of another popular Democrat, California Governor Gavin Newsom.
The rising fortunes of the 39-year-old Democrat are somewhat surprising given Georgia’s history as a Republican stronghold. Since the 1970s, only three Democratic presidents have won the state: native son Jimmy Carter, southerner Bill Clinton, and Joe Biden.
But Ossoff has been a prolific fundraiser appealing to both the Democratic base and swing voters while building a reputation holding Trump and his officials to account.
This month, for instance, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth was left stumbling after Ossoff used the defense secretary’s own words on the Iran war to give him a blistering grilling on Capitol Hill.
The Democrat also had another viral moment taking Trump’s nominee for Director of National Intelligence to task over the president’s debunked claims about 2020 election fraud.
“Who won the 2020 election?” Ossoff asked nominee Jay Clayton.
“I’m not going to do this with you,” said Clayton, sparking several rounds of back-and-forth before Ossoff went for the mic-drop moment.
“You refuse to answer a basic question about who won a presidential election, but you ask to lead America’s intelligence community. Isn’t it humiliating to be unable to answer this question, to have to indulge the president’s delusions?”
The latest ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball show five seats are moving from “Leans Republican” to straight toss-ups: New York’s 17th district; North Carolina’s 1st district and 11th district; Florida’s 7th district; and Pennsylvania’s 8th district.
The Ohio seat of Republican Max Miller—who is facing serious allegations of domestic abuse, which he denies—also shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
Trump is not on the ballot for the midterms but is campaigning on behalf of Republicans he has endorsed, which could end up being a blessing or a curse come November.
“It’s interesting because I think Republicans strategically have made a bet that emphasizing the president is a better bet than de-emphasizing him,” Kondik said.
“They want to try to use the president to try to motivate some irregular voters to come out, but there are dangers in that.”
