A veteran election forecaster who has tracked American politics for more than four decades is predicting a brutal midterm reckoning for President Donald Trump and the Republicans.
His prediction comes as polls point to mounting trouble for Republicans, with the midterms widely seen as a verdict on the president’s record.
Democrats need to gain four seats in both the House and Senate to seize control of Congress.
Polls suggest they are well placed to take the House, while prediction markets have put their chances of winning the Senate at roughly three in four.
The Democrats also hold an advantage of around nine points in the generic congressional ballot, according to RealClearPolling. Republican candidates are trailing in several traditionally conservative states, including Texas, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.
With polls pointing to significant Republican losses, veteran forecaster Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, told The New Republic the political climate facing Republicans in 2026 is unlike anything he has seen before.
Asked what Republicans could expect from the midterms, Cook didn’t mince words.
“How about an a-- whooping?” he replied. “It’s more than a beating. It’s a hell of a beating.”
“There’s no putting a smiley face on this thing,” he added.
Cook’s forecasts have become increasingly bleak for Republicans.
Cook now sees Democrats gaining five seats in the Senate, giving them a 52-seat majority. That is a significant upgrade from his earlier estimate of two or three pickups, and he said the eventual total could climb to 53 or 54.
He pointed to polling from The New York Times and Siena College showing Democratic candidates ahead in seven competitive Senate races, including in Texas, where James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton by five to seven points, despite the state historically being safe GOP territory.
He also raised concerns about several Republicans, including Mississippi’s Cindy Hyde-Smith, Kansas’ Roger Marshall and South Carolina’s Darline Graham. Some GOP senators, he argued, were so weak politically that they “underperform what a potted plant might get” in their home states.
The House could prove even more painful for Republicans, he said.
Cook put the Democrats’ likely tally at no fewer than 230 seats, describing that figure as “the realistic floor” and saying he expected them to go higher.
Trump and Republicans have lost ground since the president launched his war on Iran in February.
The war has sent fuel prices soaring, despite Trump’s assurances that the spike would be temporary. Nine months into the conflict, Americans are still paying an average of $4.15 a gallon for gasoline and $6.29 for diesel, according to AAA.
Trump’s approval rating has meanwhile fallen into the low 30s, its lowest level on record.
That anger with Trump is translating into increasingly bleak midterm prospects for Republicans, with Cook describing the current climate as the party’s worst electoral conditions “in at least a generation, and maybe since Watergate.”
Still, Cook warned against treating a Republican defeat as proof that Democrats have suddenly won over the electorate.
He described the current mood as a “red undertow,” rather than a straightforward blue wave, with much of the backlash directed at Trump and the Republicans who have backed him.
“This is really more about being p---ed off at President Trump and at Republicans who enabled him,” Cook said.
He added: “They expect a Democratic president to screw them. They don’t expect a Republican president, this one, to screw them. But they’re feeling screwed.”
Cook expects the anti-Republican mood to be reflected in turnout, predicting a lackluster showing from GOP voters and exceptionally high participation among Black voters, particularly in the South.
“We’re going big,” he said.
