President Donald Trump’s chest-thumping narrative about his Middle East war has been undercut by a damning intelligence leak on the extent of Iran’s capabilities.
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to policymakers just this week concluded that Iran can survive a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before it plummets into economic hardship, four insiders told The Washington Post.
The same analysis also found that Iran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities even after weathering weeks of attacks from the U.S. and Israel, according to the outlet, further raising questions about Trump’s bombastic claims about the war.
The report came just a day after Trump heaped praise on the Navy’s “unbelievable” blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and claimed that Iran’s missiles are “mostly decimated.”
The CIA estimated that Iran can survive the U.S. blockade for at least 90 to 120 days, The Post reported. A U.S. official who spoke to the outlet said they believed that Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic strain may be far greater than the agency’s estimate.
“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
A source told The Post that Iran has been storing some of its oil aboard tanker ships and reducing output from its oil fields to keep wells functioning.
“It’s nowhere near as dire as some have claimed,” the insider said of Iran’s economic situation.
On Wednesday, Trump touted the supposed success of his war with Iran.
“We have it very much under control,” he said at an event honoring military moms. “The blockade is unbelievable. The Navy’s been incredible. The job they did, it’s like a wall of steel nobody goes through. In particular, the Iranians, they’re not getting anything through one way or the other, so they’re out of business.”
In a separate press conference also on Wednesday, the president rehashed his defense secretary’s claims earlier this month about Iran’s missile program being “functionally destroyed.”
“They had an Air Force, lots of planes, and they don’t have any planes. They don’t have any anti-aircraft. They don’t have any radar left. Their missiles are mostly decimated,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “They have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had. And the leaders are all dead. So I think we won.”
But the CIA assessment found that Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar missiles, a U.S. official told The Post.
When reached for comment, the White House insisted that “Iran was crushed militarily” by the Trump administration’s sweeping operation.
“Their ballistic missiles are destroyed, their production facilities are dismantled, their navy is sunk, and their proxies are weakened,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.
“Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States Military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports. The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
