CNN’s data whiz Harry Enten could barely control himself at the latest midterm polls.
Enten joined CNN anchor Jessica Dean on Sunday to sound the alarm for the GOP on a fresh batch of New York Times/Siena surveys in seven key Senate battlegrounds. This final round of polling before Tuesday’s midterms had the data guru reeling.
“Just within the last few hours, we had the equivalent of a polling earthquake, a polling earthquake,” Enten said. “And to keep up with the weather metaphors... it tends to point to a blue wave.”
According to Enten, Democrats enjoy clear leads in five of the Senate races—Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas. If they all turn blue, the party will go from 47 Senate seats to 54.
“That’s a net gain of seven seats,” a shocked Enten said. “My goodness gracious.”
In two other key states, Iowa and Alaska, the Democratic candidates were just a point ahead, so Enten said there was “no clear leader.”
Michigan:
The widest gap is in the Wolverine State, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is leading Republican Mike Rogers 53 to 42 percent.
“Abdul El-Sayed up by 11 points over Mike Rogers in the great state of Michigan,” Enten said.
El-Sayed, 42, is ahead despite a curveball on Sunday, when Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, 43, threw her support behind Rogers, 63.
In an unexpected rise, Democrat James Talarico, 37, is smashing Republican Ken Paxton, 63.
Talarico holds a 7-point lead, 50 to 43 percent, in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, according to Texas Public Radio.
“He’s up 7 points,” Enten said.
Trouble is also rumbling in Maine; Democrat Troy Jackson, 58, has 51 percent to Republican Sen. Susan Collins’ 45.
“Troy Jackson leading the longtime incumbent Susan Collins by 6 points,” Enten said.
In once-purple Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, 73, is making a comeback bid and leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 59, by 5 points.
The Democrat sits at 49 percent to the Republican’s 44.
“Sherrod Brown trying to get his old job back, although this is a different Senate seat,” Enten noted.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, 62, is whipping Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, 66.
Democrats have no place like home in Kansas, where they hold a 49 to 44 percent lead.
“That’s so long ago,” Enten said. “That is when Babe Ruth called his shot back in the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field.”
Democrats Mary Peltola, 53, and Josh Turek, 47, each hold 1-point edges, well within the margin of error and too close to call.
“Way too close to call,” Enten said.
But Enten warned voters who are flying the blue flag too early.
He noted that polling “has tended, at least in the Trump-won states, to underestimate Republicans during the Trump era by an order of 4.1 points in the close Senate races.”
If Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Kansas flip back to red, “all of a sudden Republicans get to 50 Senate seats,” Enten said, “and of course, you get the vice president breaking the tie in that situation.”
“So Republicans are still very much in the game,” he said.
“I’m not necessarily sure Republicans can count on a polling miss benefiting them,” Enten said, noting that Democrats beat their final Senate polling averages in 57 percent of close races in 2018 and in every one of them in 2022.
Trump, 80, spent the campaign’s final weekend rallying in Iowa and Kansas, two of the states the polls show slipping away from his party.
“Democrats probably in the catbird seat, but Republicans still in the game,” Enten concluded.
The White House did not immediately respond to the Daily Beast’s request for comment.
