Polling expert Nate Silver says the Democrats have an 8-in-10 chance of flipping the Senate in the midterms after the latest polls showing “fantastic” numbers for the party.
Writing on his Silver Bulletin Substack, the election forecaster said his FLIPR model now gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of seizing control of the upper chamber on Tuesday, as the latest New York Times/Siena polling suggests a “blue tsunami.”
The surveys show Democratic candidates leading Republicans in every crucial Senate race—Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa—as well as each state’s respective gubernatorial race.
Silver writes that some Democratic Senate candidates’ leads, such as Abdul El-Sayed’s 11-point advantage in Michigan and James Talarico’s 7-point lead in Texas, are so commanding that they could “absorb a modest-sized polling error” and still come out on top.
“Even if Democrats were to lose a couple of these races—and there’s actually some bad news for them here in Alaska, I think—absolutely no Democrat is going to complain if they only flip the top five races in this chart, especially if it comes along with the Texas governorship,” Silver wrote.
“The NYT/Siena polls actually had less of an impact on our model than I expected—but for the first time tonight, Democrats’ Senate odds improved to a number that begins with an ‘8.’”
While sharing his blog on X, Silver added that the NYT/Siena survey results suggest pollsters have “crossed the threshold” into predicting that Democrats will flip enough Republican-held seats to win control of the Senate.
“They might be wrong, but that’s what they project. No hiding from it tbh,” he added.
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, said there were reasons to worry that polls suggesting a blue wave on Tuesday could prove to be a “misfire,” since surveys have previously underestimated Republican support.
However, Cohn noted that intense voter backlash against Donald Trump will be a huge factor on Tuesday, and that the president’s dire approval ratings are lower than in previous Trump-era election years when Republicans were “clobbered.”
“If there were ever a time when American voters might offer such a decisive verdict on the president, this could be it,” Cohn wrote in his analysis of the NYT/Siena polls.
“With Democrats again needing to win reliably red states to take the Senate, it’s absolutely possible that Democrats will be disappointed once more,” Cohn added.
“But this seemingly simple task is much more challenging for Republicans today than it was in 2018. Back then, Republicans could win merely by holding voters who supported Mr. Trump. His approval rating was over 50 percent in all of the crucial red states where Democrats fell short. This time, they won’t have that essential advantage.”
